Historical evidence of climate change impact on drought outlook in river basins: analysis of annual maximum drought severities through daily SPI definitions     

Onuşluel Gül  Gülay  Gül  Ali  Najar  Mohamed 《Natural Hazards》2022,110(2):1389-1404

In the context of major outcomes of a steadily changing climate, extreme climatic conditions and the associated events in various forms of weather-related natural disasters, e.g. droughts, floods, and heat waves, are more frequently experienced on the global scale in recent years. In support of this argument, there are adequate numbers of explicit signals over such a persistent outlook, which is greatly illustrated by historical data and observations. This study, which is mainly oriented to investigating the drought behaviour in Thracian, Aegean and Mediterranean transects of Turkey's major river basins, is actually inspired by the foreseen potential of using annual maximum drought severity series (based on drought definition through the standardized precipitation index (SPI)) within a framework that resembles the use of flood discharge directly from flow measurements in a river basin. To this end, a series of spatial analyses were employed to identify different aspects of flood appearance in the study extent, including trend views on annual average drought severity series, shifts in the starting time of the annually most severe flood periods, and changes in spatial coverage views of average drought conditions under different drought severity categories. The framework of the analytical approaches depends greatly on validated international datasets and open-source computational algorithms. The results from the analyses that were conducted in two consecutive periods of 1958–1980 and 1981–2004 revealed that Turkey's western and southern river basin systems seemed to have experienced quite different behaviours between the two periods in terms of drought severity magnitudes, drought durations and annual occurrence times.

  相似文献   

High-resolution record of tectonic and sedimentary processes in growth strata     

Stphane Pochat  Sbastien Castelltort  Gaël Choblet  Jean Van Den Driessche 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2009,26(8):1350-1364

Growth strata are used to determine the kinematics of synsedimentary structures such as faults. Classical methods of analysis such as thickness versus throw plot consider that the available space created by fault slip in the hanging wall of faults is instantaneously filled up by sediments. This has lead many previous works to identify a cyclic activity for growth faults. Here we perform a careful analysis of the variation of strata thicknesses on each side of a very well documented normal growth fault in the Niger delta. We show that these thickness variations are induced by the alternation of sedimentary processes during continuous fault slip. Suspended-load processes induce either uniform or slightly variable thickness of a large majority of mudstone layers. Bedload processes result in a preferential thickening of sand layers in the hanging wall. These high quality data thus provide strong grounds for doubting the polycyclic growth diagnosed for some faults at the scale of sedimentary cycles and supports the notion that fault displacement rates can be very well behaved. Our study emphasizes the important conclusion that stable fault growth, and related displacement rates, can appear to be punctuated when viewed at the scale of sedimentary cycles. It follows that care should be taken when attempting to derive displacement rates on temporal scales equivalent to those of alternating sedimentological cycles.  相似文献   

Integrated and interdisciplinary scientific approach to coastal management     

Joaquín Tintoré  Raúl Medina  Lluís Gómez-Pujol  Alejandro Orfila  Guillermo Vizoso 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2009,52(10):493-505

Coastal zones and beach management practices, regulatory decisions, and land use planning activities along coastal zones have historically been made with insufficient information concerning the dynamic coastal environment. In this study we address and integrate an interdisciplinary scientific approach to Coastal Management in a scenario where lack of this information has resulted in the alteration of the natural dune system of the beach of Cala Millor (Mallorca, Balearic Islands, Spain), and also in the perception of the beach retreat and in a parallel way, a risk for the tourism resources. In this work the detailed studies on beach morphodynamics have been developed as a basis for integrating proper beach management, beach natural dynamics and local users and economic agent interests. From this point of view a set of solutions are considered as the basis for a management policy that links beach science and beach use as a tourism resort resource.  相似文献   

Obliquity‐dominated glacio‐eustatic sea level change in the early Oligocene: evidence from the shallow marine siliciclastic Rupelian stratotype (Boom Formation,Belgium)     

Hemmo A. Abels  Stefaan Van Simaeys  Frits J. Hilgen  Ellen De Man  Noël Vandenberghe 《地学学报》2007,19(1):65-73

Our results prove that glacio‐eustatic sea level oscillations in the early Oligocene were dominantly obliquity controlled with additional influence of the ∼100‐ and 405‐kyr eccentricity cycles. This was derived from spectral analysis of resistivity records from an extended downhole section of the Boom Clay succession in Belgium, that reveals a prevailing obliquity control on the laterally persistent metre‐scale alternations of shallow marine silt‐ and claystones in the Rupelian historical stratotype succession. These direct measurements of sea level variations in a shallow marine setting corroborate that variations with similar frequencies in benthonic oxygen isotope records from the open ocean indeed reflect, at least partly, ice volume change. A very tentative astronomical tuning has been established for the Boom Clay succession which awaits future confirmation with the addition of more accurate age calibration points.  相似文献   

Impact of justice and solidarity variables on the acceptability of managed realignment     

Bénédicte Rulleau  Hélène Rey-Valette  Valérie Clément 《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):361-377

Sea-level rise due to climate change will have significant effects on coastal areas and populations. Adaptation policies recommend the managed realignment of the most vulnerable assets and activities. Despite their medium- and long-term benefits, these policies face significant friction due to social acceptability in the communities where they are implemented.

This article investigates the hypothesis that respecting principles of justice in the implementation of managed realignment should increase its acceptability. We compare preferences of those people who are exposed to the risk of climate-change-induced flooding and those who are not, as regards funding managed retreat policies and defining compensation criteria for assets at risk. The main theories of social justice provide the four principles included in the analysis: efficiency, need, responsibility and priority assigned to property rights.

A choice experiment survey was conducted with 258 residents of coastal and hinterland communities in the south of France. Four attributes were selected to define the managed realignment policy: the dialogue arrangements, the implementation period, the policy implementation schedule and the cost. The results show support for a relatively fast launch of these policies (within 15 years) but in stages and through a process of dialogue with the population. People's perceptions of the funding criteria reveal a preference for national solidarity. Finally, national funding of managed retreat policies and compensation criteria based on market prices have a significant positive influence on the acceptability of managed realignment policies, whereas introducing responsibility-based compensation criteria tends to favour the status quo over the adaptation policy.

Policy relevance

Prioritization of the funding criteria reveals the preference for national solidarity. Preferences for the justice criteria underpinning compensation reveal a great diversity of values. Besides implantation modalities, preferences for managed realignment policies depend on which level they are implemented at, on the expropriation criteria (the emphasis given to property rights, i.e. market price), on the attachment (people perceived as worst off, i.e. the property is their main residence rather than a second home or they have lower levels of income) and on the degree of responsibility (related to the date of purchase, i.e. on the information given at the time on the risk).  相似文献   

A high resolution hindcast of the meteorological sea level component for Southern Europe: the GOS dataset     

Alba Cid  Sonia Castanedo  Ana J. Abascal  Melisa Menéndez  Raúl Medina 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(7-8):2167-2184

  相似文献   

Trophic ecology of Pomatoschistus microps within an intertidal bay (Roscoff,France), investigated through gut content and stable isotope analyses     

Jean‐Charles Leclerc  Pascal Riera  Laure M.‐L. J. Noël  Cédric Leroux  Ann C. Andersen 《Marine Ecology》2014,35(2):261-270

The diet of Pomatoschistus microps has been studied using both gut content and stable isotope analyses. In the Roscoff Aber Bay (Brittany, France), this fish is commonly found on sandy muddy intertidal flats. Gut content analyses were also interpreted using trophic indices. Owing to the large diversity of prey consumed, these indices emphasised the opportunistic feeding behaviour of P. microps. Here, this species fed mainly on endofauna with meiofauna being of high relative importance. The main biotic components of its trophic habitat, characterized by δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N, provided evidence of a major trophic pathway based on drift Enteromorpha sp. Trophic positions estimated by both diet analyses and isotopic analyses led to similar results. In this bay, P. microps is a first‐order predator with a low degree of omnivory. Despite a preferential consumption of the amphipod Corophium arenarium, we assumed that this goby behaves as a generalist feeding on a uniform variety of endofauna taxa.  相似文献   

Distribution and temporal variation of mega‐fauna at the Regab pockmark (Northern Congo Fan), based on a comparison of videomosaics and geographic information systems analyses     

Yann Marcon  Heiko Sahling  Anne‐Gaëlle Allais  Gerhard Bohrmann  Karine Olu 《Marine Ecology》2014,35(1):77-95

The Regab pockmark is a large cold seep area located 10 km north of the Congo deep sea channel at about 3160 m water depth. The associated ecosystem hosts abundant fauna, dominated by chemosynthetic species such as the mussel Bathymodiolus aff. boomerang, vestimentiferan tubeworm Escarpia southwardae, and vesicomyid clams Laubiericoncha chuni and Christineconcha regab. The pockmark was visited during the West African Cold Seeps (WACS) cruise with RV Pourquoi Pas? in February 2011, and a 14,000‐m² high‐resolution videomosaic was constructed to map the most populated area and to describe the distribution of the dominant megafauna (mussels, tubeworms and clams). The results are compared with previous published works, which also included a videomosaic in the same area of the pockmark, based on images of the BIOZAIRE cruise in 2001. The 10‐year variation of the faunal distribution is described and reveals that the visible abundance and distribution of the dominant megafaunal populations at Regab have not changed significantly, suggesting that the overall methane and sulfide fluxes that reach the faunal communities have been stable. Nevertheless, small and localized distribution changes in the clam community indicate that it is exposed to more transient fluxes than the other communities. Observations suggest that the main megafaunal aggregations at Regab are distributed around focused zones of high flux of methane‐enriched fluids likely related to distinct smaller pockmark structures that compose the larger Regab pockmark. Although most results are consistent with the existing successional models for seep communities, some observations in the distribution of the Regab mussel population do not entirely fit into these models. This is likely due to the high heterogeneity of this site formed by the coalescence of several pockmarks. We hypothesize that the mussel distribution at Regab could also be controlled by the occurrence of zones of both intense methane fluxes and reduced efficiency of the anaerobic oxidation of methane possibly limiting tubeworm colonization.  相似文献   

Pockmarks on either side of the Strait of Gibraltar: formation from overpressured shallow contourite gas reservoirs and internal wave action during the last glacial sea-level lowstand?     

Ricardo León  Luis Somoza  Teresa Medialdea  Francisco Javier González  Carmen Julia Gimenez-Moreno  Raúl Pérez-López 《Geo-Marine Letters》2014,34(2-3):131-151

Integrating novel and published swath bathymetry (3,980 km²), as well as chirp and high-resolution 2D seismic reflection profiles (2,190 km), this study presents the mapping of 436 pockmarks at water depths varying widely between 370 and 1,020 m on either side of the Strait of Gibraltar. On the Atlantic side in the south-eastern Gulf of Cádiz near the Camarinal Sill, 198 newly discovered pockmarks occur in three well localized and separated fields: on the upper slope (n=14), in the main channel of the Mediterranean outflow water (MOW, n=160), and on the huge contourite levee of the MOW main channel (n=24) near the well-known TASYO field. These pockmarks vary in diameter from 60 to 919 m, and are sub-circular to irregularly elongated or lobate in shape. Their slope angles on average range from 3° to 25°. On the Mediterranean side of the strait on the Ceuta Drift of the western Alborán Basin, where pockmarks were already known to occur, 238 pockmarks were identified and grouped into three interconnected fields, i.e. a northern (n=34), a central (n=61) and a southern field (n=143). In the latter two fields the pockmarks are mainly sub-circular, ranging from 130 to 400 m in diameter with slope angles averaging 1.5° to 15°. In the northern sector, by contrast, they are elongated up to 1,430 m, probably reflecting MOW activity. Based on seismo-stratigraphic interpretation, it is inferred that most pockmarks formed during and shortly after the last glacial sea-level lowstand, as they are related to the final erosional discontinuity sealed by Holocene transgressive deposits. Combining these findings with other existing knowledge, it is proposed that pockmark formation on either side of the Strait of Gibraltar resulted from gas and/or sediment pore-water venting from overpressured shallow gas reservoirs entrapped in coarse-grained contourites of levee deposits and Pleistocene palaeochannel infillings. Venting was either triggered or promoted by hydraulic pumping associated with topographically forced internal waves. This mechanism is analogous to the long-known effect of tidal pumping on the dynamics of unit pockmarks observed along the Norwegian continental margin.  相似文献   

Geophysical exploration of an active pockmark field in the Bay of Concarneau,southern Brittany,and implications for resident suspension feeders     

Agnès Baltzer  Axel Ehrhold  Carinne Rigolet  Aurélie Souron  Céline Cordier  Hélène Clouet  Stanislas F. Dubois 《Geo-Marine Letters》2014,34(2-3):215-230

About a decade ago, a large field of pockmarks (individual features up to 30 m in diameter and <2 m deep) was discovered in water depths of 15–40 m in the Bay of Concarneau in southern Brittany along the French Atlantic coast, covering an overall area of 36 km² and characterised by unusually high pockmark densities in places reaching 2,500 per square kilometre. As revealed by geophysical swath and subbottom profile data ground-truthed by sediment cores collected during two campaigns in 2005 and 2009, the confines of the pockmark field show a spectacular spatial association with those of a vast expanse of tube mats formed by a benthic community of the suspension-feeding amphipod Haploops nirae. The present study complements those findings with subbottom chirp profiles, seabed sonar imagery and ultrasonic backscatter data from the water column acquired in April 2011. Results show that pockmark distribution is influenced by the thickness of Holocene deposits covering an Oligocene palaeo-valley system. Two groups of pockmarks were identified: (1) a group of large (>10 m diameter), more widely scattered pockmarks deeply rooted (up to 8 ms two-way travel time, TWTT) in the Holocene palaeo-valley infills, and (2) a group of smaller, more densely spaced pockmarks shallowly rooted (up to 2 ms TWTT) in interfluve deposits. Pockmark pore water analyses revealed high methane concentrations peaking at ca. 400 μl/l at 22 and 30 cm core depth in silty sediments immediately above Haploops-bearing layers. Water column data indicate acoustic plumes above pockmarks, implying ongoing pockmark activity. Pockmark gas and/or fluid expulsion resulting in increased turbidity (resuspension of, amongst others, freshly settled phytoplankton) could at least partly account for the strong spatial association with the phytoplankton-feeding H. nirae in the Bay of Concarneau, exacerbating impacts of anthropogenically induced eutrophication and growing offshore trawling activities. Tidally driven hydraulic pumping in gas-charged pockmarks represents a good candidate as large-scale short-term triggering mechanism of pockmark activation, in addition to episodic regional seismic activity.  相似文献